Anticipating water distribution service outages from increasing temperatures

Abstract With projected temperature increases and extreme events due to climate change for many regions of the world, characterizing impacts these emerging hazards on water distribution systems is necessary identify prioritize adaptation strategies ensuring reliability. To aid decision-making, new insights are needed into how system reliability climate-driven heat will change, proactive maintenance available combat failures. this end, we present model Perses, a framework that joins network hydraulic solver with models physical assets or components estimate increase-driven failures resulting service outages in long term. A theoretical case study developed using Phoenix, Arizona profiles, city temperatures rapidly expanding infrastructure. By end-of-century under hotter futures there be 1%–5% more pump failures, 2%–5% PVC pipe 3%–7% iron (RCP 4.5–8.5) than baseline historical profile. Service outages, which constitute inadequate pressure domestic commercial use increase by 16%–26% above maximum conditions. The exceedance when compounded across large metro region, reveals potential challenges budgeting, management, maintenance. An exploration mitigation shows expedited repair times capable offsetting additional from but come cost.